Uncertainty looms among local agricultural producers and regional economists about how President Donald Trump’s off-and-on tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico will impact Malheur County’s economy.
For months, Trump has spoken about implementing tariffs – a tax on imports from other countries – to stop illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl into the U.S., and to improve the country’s economy.
Last week, on Tuesday, the Trump administration invoked sweeping levies of 25% of imports from Canada and Mexico. Two days later, the president signed an executive order delaying new tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada for a month.
The tariffs prompted retaliatory tariffs from Mexico, Canada and China on goods coming from the U.S. China announced a 15% on wheat, corn, soybeans, pork, beef, fruits, vegetables and dairy products. Canada announced tariffs on $20 billion in goods from the U.S., including tomatoes and fruits.
In Malheur County, the agriculture industry is king. It generated $500 million in products, crops and cattle sold in 2022, according to a census by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Jeff Hyatt, a Parma farmer who grows wheat and corn on about 1,000 acres, said the talk of tariffs concerns him. In the northwest region of the country most of the crops produced like wheat and dairy are exported given the area’s proximity to the ocean and ports. Hyatt, a Trump supporter, said the tariffs might benefit some domestic production such as aluminum and steel.
He said domestic markets for wheat are already being fulfilled. Adding more supply, he said, would lower the price.
“There is a really close balance between supply and demand,” he said. “Any little hiccup in the supply or the demand causes a price movement. In this case, it would be a negative price because of the increased supply.”
But ultimately, Hyatt isn’t sure what to think about tariffs.
“I’m not really against tariffs per se,” Hyatt said. “I’m just scared by them.”
Paul Skeen, who grows onions and sugar beets, among other crops, said up to 40% of onions that come into the country are from Mexico and Peru. Those imports have hurt the market, Skeen said. Meantime, the cost to pack onions and do business has steadily increased.
He added that last year not as many onions from Mexico came into the market, which helped local growers. Nonetheless, Skeen said the price to do business continues to increase.
Chad Mueller, a professor of agricultural entrepreneurship from Eastern Oregon University, said the farm industry was deemed to be in a recession last year. Agricultural economists with the Farm Journal, an agricultural publication, cited reduced farm income, fuel and production costs as factors causing a turndown in agriculture prospects.
Mueller said the tariffs have an impact on the costs of equipment coming into the U.S. The European Union, he said, is one of the biggest suppliers.
“On the equipment side, it’s going to put some question marks on to the budgets of these producers,” Mueller said.
Skeen said he has seen farmers in the area cutting back when it comes to equipment.
“You don’t see new tractors sitting on the lot,” he said. “You see a used tractor.”
The agricultural economists told the Farmers Journal that more producers are struggling to pay off their loans to the bank. Skeen said someone he knows in banking confirmed that with him.
“There’s problems in the farming community,” he said. “It tells you things are not looking good.”
Peter Maille, an economist at Eastern Oregon University, said that for every dollar from an export there is $2 of economic activity, from supporting jobs, to purchasing equipment in the community. In Malheur County, which is among the poorest counties in the state, any “bit of a shock” can be “really nasty.”
He said an economically “marginal” county could reach a tipping point, where many barely afford basic necessities.
‘Bear with me’
During his recent address to Congress, Trump asked farmers to “bear with me again” as he made the case that agricultural imports harm American farmers.
Trump issued tariffs during his first term in 2018. According to Maille, the tariffs cost the agricultural industry in Oregon $58 billion.
Skeen said what Trump was trying to tell farmers is that the tariffs would hurt for a little while “but in the long run, it’ll be better.”
Hyatt said he voted for Trump and while there could be some short-term suffering, the president has the long-term interest of the U.S. farmer at heart.
He said farmers have a “long term” outlook. “A lot of times there’s short-term suffering in agriculture.”
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