A large crowd was on hand for the economic breakfast Thursday, March 31, at Four Rivers Cultural Center. (The Enterprise/PAT CALDWELL)
ONTARIO – Employers should anticipate years of challenge filling jobs as the economy recovers from the pandemic and seniors speed up their retirement, an Idaho state economist told an Ontario audience last week.
Craig Shaul, an analyst with the Idaho Department of Labor, said participation in the labor force in Idaho is lower than it has been in about 50 years. Participation is a measure of those 16 and older working or looking for work.
Oregon’s labor force participation rate is only slightly higher than Idaho’s.
Shaul discussed the status of the labor market at the Western Treasure Valley Economic Breakfast, held Thursday, March 31, at Four Rivers Cultural Center.
About 100 people attended the breakfast, put on by the Snake River Economic Development Alliance, the Small Business Development Center at Treasure Valley Community College, and the Ontario Area Chamber of Commerce.
The crowd was a mix of business and government leaders. Those attending included Malheur County Judge Dan Joyce, Malheur County Commissioner Ron Jacobs, Ontario Mayor Riley Hill, Vale Mayor Tom Vialpando, state Sen. Lynn Findley, state Rep. Mark Owens and Treasure Valley Community College President Dana Young.
Shaul said Idaho has recovered stronger than any other state, noting its unemployment rate has dropped below 3%.
He showed that 26,231 were unemployed in Idaho while employers had put up 53,180 help wanted ads, meaning thousands of jobs would still be vacant if every unemployed person went to work.
The circumstances make it “extremely difficult” for employers to find workers, Shaul said. They increasingly are turning to recruit workers who already are employed elsewhere.
“Employers will have to be creative with the work force we have,” he said.
He cited several factors for the tight labor market.
He said retirees make up the largest share of those who have dropped out of the labor force. He said economists had not expected the level of work retirements to reach the current level for another five years.
Shaul said those retirements are being prodded by what he termed “FOMO” – fear of missing out. He said the pandemic deepened such feelings.
A slow natural population growth rate is another limit on the work force. He said most population growth in Idaho is from people moving from other states.
He warned employers that “we are going to live with this for the next decade.”
If Shaul’s presentation was cautionary, Matt Borud provided reason for optimism, at least relating to tourism. He is the marketing and innovation administrator at Idaho Commerce.
Borud said growth in the number of travelers so far in 2022 in Idaho has been “astronomical.”
He said Idaho marked one of the highest growth rates in tourism in the U.S. And more opportunity is ahead, he said.
“We can grow at a greater clip than the national average,” Borud said.
He said Idaho takes a regional approach to travel marketing, something that benefits Malheur County.
He said outdoor recreation “was the only game in town” during the pandemic.
“Even in the Covid era, we were receiving more visitors than we did pre-Covid,” Borud said.
He said visitors are interested in history and culture, and that interest in culinary, beer and wine outlets is now a “huge, huge deal.”
He noted the growth in what’s termed as short-term rentals, such as properties listed on VRBO. He said those now serve a significant number of travelers, and guests using such properties tend to spend more locally than those in traditional lodging.
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